Do we like them?

Do we like Kassym-Jomart Tokayev?

Our score: 2 out of 10. He signed the anti-LGBTQ+ propaganda law and ordered shoot-to-kill in 2022; the 2024 domestic violence law is the main real good on the other side.

Tokayev is a career diplomat. He trained in the Soviet system, served as Kazakhstan's foreign minister and prime minister, and later held a senior UN post. He became president in 2019 as Nursultan Nazarbayev's chosen successor, then broke with him after the 2022 unrest, which he blamed on Nazarbayev-era figures attempting a coup.

January 2022 is the stain that won't wash out. In a televised address he said he had given the order to “shoot to kill without warning” and called protesters terrorists. Official figures put the toll at 238 dead, and a coalition of rights groups alleged mass torture of detainees afterwards. They also say no transparent investigation followed. Tokayev rejected an international inquiry.

On the harm test, the big one is the LGBTQ+ law. He signed a copy of Russia's 2013 'propaganda' law on 30 December 2025. People who share the content can be fined or held up to 10 days, and seven rights groups including Human Rights Watch had urged lawmakers to reject it. The March 2026 constitution he initiated also defines marriage as a man and woman.

The wider picture is about power. The 2026 constitution merges parliament's two chambers and gives the president more say over top appointments. It also adds a People's Council whose members he appoints. Analysts quoted by AP say it could reset his term limit, and the supreme court says it makes him eligible for another term. Press groups have separately alleged a wave of arrests of journalists, and the CPJ letter reported no response from Kazakh authorities.

The recent news fits that pattern. The new vice president, Erlan Karin, is a longtime adviser and is now first in line to succeed him. Parliament, dominated by a pro-Tokayev party, approved the appointment quickly. Tokayev says he'll decide on another run in 2027, so the question stays open.

There is some real good. In April 2024 he signed a law restoring criminal penalties for battery and light bodily harm against dependent people and making police investigate domestic violence without a complaint. Human Rights Watch called it improved but incomplete, since it creates no stand-alone domestic violence offence. On the planet, nothing solid turned up in what I read, so that's a gap.